CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-12-08T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-12-08T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35513/-1
CME Note: Flux rope CME with an additional narrow portion on the southern edge that protrudes in front of the leading edge of the main flux rope shape seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption and X2.2 flare from AR 3912 (S07W52) which peaked at 2024-12-08T09:06Z. Dimming and opening field lines are seen starting at 2024-12-08T09:04Z in GOES SUVI 195/171 spanning from S20W50 to N05W50, with field line movement reaching as far as N20. Ejecta can also be seen in GOS SUVI 304 which can first be seen starting at 2024-12-08T09:24Z, but was likely initiated with the flare. Flare, dimming, and ejecta can also be seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 at 2024-12-08T09:05Z and 09:15Z, respectively.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-11T08:20Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 12.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -660.62 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:57Z
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